Measles Outbreak Tracking Tool in Action
The AI4Casting Hub team at the University of Guelph is excited to announce the launch of a community-focused public health interactive dashboard designed to track and forecast potential measles outbreaks (link). With measles cases nearly doubling in Ontario in the past two weeks and 14 confirmed cases in the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph area since March 21, this tool is more crucial than ever.
How Can We Help?Our Measles Outbreaks Dashboard is an interactive tool designed to track and predict the evolution of measles outbreaks, specifically targeting the 0-9 years old age group in the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph PH region. This region encompasses around 33,500 children who regularly attend daycare and school. The dashboard features:
- A compartmental model that tracks:
- Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Isolated (L), Vaccinated (V), Recovered (R)
- Post-exposure vaccination (VL) for traced individuals
- Adjustable Contact Rate settings to explore how changing interactions between children affects outbreak dynamics.
- Real-time simulation of public health interventions such as contact tracing and isolation.
- Incorporation of Vaccine Efficacy post-Exposure, considering timing and vaccine type.
On the 570 NewsRadio Kitchener, Professor Monica G. Cojocaru, Director of the AI4Casting Hub emphasized the tool’s importance during this surge in measles cases:
"Because measles is highly contagious, even a slight dip in vaccination coverage can increase the risk of outbreaks. Herd immunity requires around 95 percent vaccine coverage, but even a drop to 85 percent could trigger outbreaks."
The AI4Casting Hub isn’t just about numbers; it’s about helping health professionals and communities make informed decisions. By simulating different public health strategies, it demonstrates how vaccination rates, contact tracing speed, and isolation protocols directly affect outbreak prevention.
Professor Cojocaru points out the value of proactive measures:
"With this tool, we visualize and understand just how critical vaccination rates, contact tracing speed, and public health interventions are in preventing outbreaks."
Explore the Dashboard NowStay updated and take proactive steps in understanding how measles can spread and how interventions can make a difference. Visit our dashboard today!
For more comprehensive information on measles, check out Public Health Ontario and Public Health Canada official websites.
Related:
We’re excited to share that the AI4Casting Hub has officially reached out to our broader modelling community, inviting researchers, students, and collaborators to join our initiative!
